Is Crime on the Rise in Germany?
Criminologist Dietrich Oberwittler puts crime statistics in perspective
A string of serious crimes took place in Germany recently, such as the knife attack in Aschaffenburg and the car-ramming attack in Magdeburg, both resulting in fatalities. Intense media coverage and emotionally charged debates during the federal election campaign gave many people the impression that Germany has become a dangerous country with a high rate of crime. But is this really the case?
“Germany is principally a safe country,” says criminologist Dietrich Oberwittler. If you look at developments over the past 20 to 30 years, some types of crime have decreased significantly, explains the researcher. He heads an independent research group at the Max Planck Institute for the Study of Crime, Security and Law and has been carrying out crime research for decades.
According to Oberwittler, the strong focus of the election campaign on so-called migrant crime is not reflected in the actual development of crime. To get a more accurate mapping of police crime statistics, dark field surveys would also need to be taken into account in order to help researchers better understand crime trends and rates. This would reveal that there are few signs of an increase in violent crime.
Oberwittler does acknowledge that some migrant groups, like those from North Africa, exhibit higher rates of criminal behavior. There has also been an increase in the crime statistics for non-German youths since 2022. Homicides in this group have doubled since 2021, but are still “at a very low level”, as Oberwittler mentioned in an interview with the German daily newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ).
A sought-after criminologist, Dietrich Oberwittler was recently interviewed in a documentary produced by the German TV news magazine Monitor: “Volk in Angst: Wie mit Verbrechen Politik gemacht wird” (The Fear Factor – How Crime Becomes a Political Tool). One of the topics covered in the documentary was how to interpret police crime statistics.
Police crime statistics tally all criminal offenses investigated by the police in a given period. At first glance, the figures appear alarming: crimes have increased in almost all areas over the past year. During the TV program, however, it becomes clear that the figures only make sense when viewed relatively: some data are only of limited significance and the longer-term trends even contradict the impression of a sharp rise in violent crime.
Oberwittler also emphasizes that police crime statistics do not record all crimes and that there is a “huge dark field” and other systemic distortions. “When it comes to reporting criminal behavior, studies show that not every incident has the same likelihood of being reported,” the criminologist commented. There are indications, for example, that non-German offenders are more likely to be reported than Germans. It is also clear that society’s sensitization to violence has increased. This is especially evident in the context of young women and sexual violence, an area of crime that people are now paying attention to more than ever before. As a result, such crimes are also being reported more frequently.
According to the researcher, police crime statistics can therefore only “to a very limited extent” be regarded as an accurate measure of crime in Germany. “Germany is one of the safest countries in the world,” the expert is certain.
Oberwittler does not deny that there are unsafe areas and spaces that cause fear. “But these places have not increased in recent years,” he told the FAZ. The attacks of the past months, for him, have had an “enormous impact” on people’s sense of security. “Shocking individual cases always trigger immediate fear, but it is usually more of a public panic.” Regularly conducted population surveys show that, in fact, the sense of security in Germany has increased over the past 30 years.
Dietrich Oberwittler in the news (selection):
- „Das Gefühl, nicht mehr sicher zu sein“ – Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) article on 08.04.2025
- „Volk in Angst: Wie mit Verbrechen Politik gemacht wird“ – Westdeutscher Rundfunk (WDR) TV broadcast on 24.04.2025 (in German)
- Südwestrundfunk (SWR) broadcast on 25.04.2025 (in German)
